Josh Bersin recently published an interesting analysis of what the US workforce could look like in 2035. His message is quite reassuring: the workforce is aging, labor supply is slowing, healthcare and other human-centered jobs will continue to grow, and AI is more likely to transform many jobs than simply eliminate them.
I agree with much of this analysis. His outlook is built primarily on the United States, and within that context his conclusions make sense to me. But after more than two decades working across HR, HR technology and transformation in Africa and the Middle East, I believe the African perspective is very different.
We are not starting from the same demographics
In the US and Europe, AI may help address a shortage of workers. In Africa, the challenge is almost the opposite. We have a young and growing population, millions of people entering the labor market every year, and economies that already struggle to create enough formal and sustainable jobs. This means that the impact of AI cannot be discussed only through the lens of productivity.
The real issue is that AI is becoming very good at automating some of the tasks that have traditionally provided young people with their first professional experience: administration, customer support, basic analysis, accounting, recruitment screening, coding or back-office activities. These tasks are not only work. They are also part of the learning process through which people build experience, judgment and confidence. I explored that mechanism in more detail when I asked who will build the seniors if AI does the junior work, and the question becomes even more sensitive on a continent where the majority of the workforce is young.
Labor cost is a fragile advantage
There is another point that deserves attention. For many years, part of Africa’s competitiveness has been based on labor cost, especially in outsourcing, shared services and operational activities. But if a task can now be automated at a competitive cost, companies may no longer ask where they can find cheaper labor. They may simply ask whether they still need that labor at all.
This does not mean that Africa should fear AI. On the contrary, I believe the continent has a major opportunity to leapfrog. We have young talent, growing digital adoption and enormous needs in education, healthcare, financial services, agriculture, infrastructure and many other sectors. But our future advantage cannot be based only on being cheaper. It must increasingly be based on creating skilled, adaptable and AI-augmented talent.
The question behind the Superworker
This is where I would slightly challenge the idea of the “Superworker”. AI can make an experienced professional much more productive, and I see that value in the field. But we also need to ask how we will create the next generation of experienced professionals if AI performs more and more of the entry-level work through which people used to learn.
For Africa, the key question may therefore be less about whether AI will destroy jobs, and more about whether we can redesign education, skills development, career paths and economic growth fast enough to create meaningful opportunities for a new generation.
I would be very interested in hearing from HR leaders, business leaders and professionals working across Africa. From your perspective, what is the biggest workforce opportunity, or risk, that AI creates for Africa over the next ten years?